Assumptions.

We believe we shouldn’t make them, but we do.

Our assumptions go with us into almost any new situation, relationship, or interaction.

They’re part of any decision we make, and any planning we undertake.

Knowing what your assumptions are is important.

They can work in your favor, if you know how to set and use assumptions well.

Consider a decision you made that turned out not to be a good one.

Now consider when you made the first wrong turn in making that decision.

Often, that first off-track turn occurs when you don’t question and eliminate or correct the initial assumptions on which the decision is based.

Here are ways to work with your assumptions so that they work for you:

1. Record them.

First, acknowledge that you have them.

Then, record them, and note why you believe them to be true.

What facts do you have that back up your belief that these assumptions are true?

Keep a summary of your assumptions in a place where it will be easy to find and use them again. You may need to return to them later, as the decision plays out, for better or worse.

2. Test them.

If there’s a lot riding on whether your assumptions are right or wrong, find a way to test them early in the process of using them.

What research can you do?

Is there something you can observe?

Are there people who will be affected by decisions you make, using these assumptions?

If a relationship or interaction will be affected by the assumptions you make, ask the people involved if what you believe about them or the situation is true.

3. Revisit them.

When you’re using assumptions as the basis for decision-making, return to them periodically to check and see if they’re still valid.

Governments for example, can make decisions about services they’ll be able to provide citizens, based on how much tax revenue they think they’ll collect in the future.

Building and service commitments can be made, and taxpayers’ expectations can be set about the services they will get for the taxes they paid. Then the economy can change, sometimes radically and rapidly.

At that point, changes must be made to adapt to the situation as well as possible. With a solid way to monitor and adapt assumptions based on current facts, the need for change can be eased or prevented.

4. Refine your assumptions if they’re no longer true.

If your assumptions turn out to be false or circumstances change so that your assumptions need to change, too, then change them.

A lot may be riding on your courage in facing facts, rather than plowing ahead with a plan of action that’s going nowhere fast, just because you don’t want to admit that, somehow, you’re wrong.

5. Improve your process of setting assumptions.

Revisit your process of making assumptions.

Check to see if you’re using good data to create and test the assumptions you use. Make sure you’re not basing big decisions on wild guesses or random conjecture.

Ensure that you have and are using a good process to synthesize the information you have to make decisions and take action, using your assumptions.

Communicate the assumptions well to those who may need to use them, such as in making forecasts.

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