What’s the best way to manage business risk?

Go toward it.

Does that sound risky, itself?

It can be. The alternative, however, can be far worse.

Real business risks, ignored…well…it’s not pretty.

Remember, first, that not all risk is the cliff diving, high-flying, life-defying kind.

Many of the circumstances that bring about these types of extreme risk are, frankly, ones you can’t control anyway.

The national and world economy, for example is something you can’t do much about.

Devastating acts of nature…same thing. You just have to be ready to adapt well, however things work out.

If these are the risks ones you worry most about, scenario analysis is a tool that could be helpful to you.

Second, the real risks in business are often things you CAN control.

And they’re often already inside your company.

They’re the risks that you either created (often unwittingly) or that you perpetuate by not taking them on, and then managing, minimizing or eliminating them.

(It sounds a bit like a virus, doesn’t it? That’s not a bad metaphor for how these things often work).

Any of the following situations are a risk to your company.

They can lead to product and service quality problems. And that can lead to the loss of customers, profits, and valued employees, too.

By the way, these are all circumstances you can improve:

- Lack of focus
- Inattention to important details…the ones your customers care most about
- Lack of clear, complete communication
- Inaction or ineffective action when a problem is discovered
- Confusing, inconsistent and ineffective ways of getting work done
- Ineffective and frustrating hiring, onboarding, training, managing and mentoring practices

The signs of potential risks and trouble can be subtle…or glaring.

And because you’re in the middle of the situation, you may not really see or grasp problems until they’ve been festering for a long time.

Start to remove risks inside your business in these ways:

1. Brainstorm

Start by considering the parts of your business that feel in control.

What gives you confidence that these things are working well?

Next, think about what feels out of control.

Which of these worry you the most, and why?

Be specific as you create both lists: “working well” and “worrisome.”

2. Pay attention

Don’t assume that all is as it seems.

What assumptions are you making that you need to check? (Often, where assumptions are concerned, you’re either very right, or very wrong).

What data and information do you wish you had to monitor and manage the things you’re most concerned about?

If those risks prove to be real (see the next step), that’s information you’ll want to begin to gather and use.

3. Go toward the risk, and test to see if it’s real

Seek to understand what’s really going on before you jump into action to prevent, mitigate or manage perceived risks.

Observe, research, inquire, test in whatever ways you can to start to see if the risks are real, or just worries that are unwarranted.

And, by the way, people may tell you, “Our work is different. It can’t be measured and managed easily.”

I’m here to tell you, though, as a former operational analyst and process auditor at Apple, there are ALWAYS things you can do to see how things are really working, compared to how you wish they were.

The information you gain in this way is always clarifying. And usually, it’s also good for profits, while it makes things work better for everyone involved.

In addition, get to know people who can advise or teach you. They may quickly see potential problems that you’re overlooking, and shouldn’t be, now.

5. Chunk the action

If changes are necessary, once you understand the risks that are present, break the change into a series of achievable actions.

You’re more likely to do the work if you “chunk” it into manageable sections.

Suddenly, big goals that were overwhelming become accessible and motivating.

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“This feels risky! This feels risky!”

A colleague and I were joking nervously on the first day of an intense, weeklong training class.

We were about to begin a rigorous simulation as we learned to coach teams through high-risk, conflict-ripe situations.

In the release of tension through humor, we were being honest about our feelings and our sense of the learning risk we faced.

We met that risk. It was not easy.

But it was a definitely a risk worth taking.

Most of the business risks I’ve taken during my career have fallen into the “risk worth taking” category. They’ve been risks of all kinds, including:

– Starting a career in a difficult national and local economy
– Changing careers
– Changing companies
– Starting a business
– Moving halfway across the country
– Stopping work for a couple of years to get a master’s degree
– Changing careers
– Changing jobs several times in the same company
– Starting another business
– Adding new products and services as the market changes, some opportunities emerging, while others go away

For some, it’s because they see risk as an experience to be endured, not a process to be managed.

Or they don’t understand risk and its benefits, when successfully faced.

Risks in business can occur in many ways.

They can be the result of uncertainties with new projects, products or services.

Risks can arise when a company grows very quickly, or when it expands into unfamiliar markets and works to meet the needs of new customers.

Individual employees, too, face the risks of change. Sometimes that change is welcome or invited. But many times, that is not the case.

You get the picture: business risk can arise in many expected and unexpected ways.

No matter how you well you manage risk now, you can always learn to handle it better.

Start by understanding your risk personality.

Are you most likely to:

– Seek risk, seeing it as a challenge and an adventure in some way?
– Love the adrenalin rush of risk so much that you create it in situations where it doesn’t have to be?
– Try to understand and manage risk?
– Steer clear of risk in all forms?
– Believe that risk does not exist in your business or industry?

Remember, however you feel about risk, your competitors are trying to manage it better than you do.

And the company that handles risk most effectively has a clear advantage over more fearful and/or less adaptable competitors.

That’s because change is always underway, whatever your business or industry.

Consider these many moving parts that most companies face:

– Customers change in terms of what they want and need
– Markets move and adapt as new competitors emerge and others leave
– Technology continues to advance, and to become smaller, faster, and sometimes, less expensive
– Employees move to different jobs and companies
– Suppliers create new products and services, and enter new markets with the products and services they already sell

The net of it is that if you hate risk, and hate to change, you may become obsolete as you try to stay right where you are, attempting to preserve the status quo.

To understand how well you handle risk now, start by considering how you handled risks in the past:

1. Think of two to three major risks you faced in the past few years.

2. Did you anticipate these risks? If not, could you have anticipated them with more or different information?

3. How well did you handle each risk?

4. How could you have handled them better?

5. Are there risks you avoided? Were you able to keep them at bay, or did they show up again in a different, more vigorous or otherwise more challenging way?

Begin, also, to look ahead:

6. How would you like to improve your risk assessment and management abilities in 2013 and beyond?

7. What information might help you anticipate, understand, and manage risks better? How can you gather this information most easily?

Improvement begins with understanding and acceptance.

Knowing where you stand, currently, goes a long way toward helping you improve your risk management and other abilities.

We’ll return to the subject of risk in the next blog post. I’ll share ideas for how you can begin to handle risk better.

In the meantime, if you’d like more ideas on how to make the next year a better year, here’s a previous blog post I wrote, Seven tips to make your business change-ready for an improved year.

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“A good half of the art of living is resilience.”
Alain de Botton

A good half of the art of business is resilience, as well.

Here’s how the need for it shows up, typically:

- All signs are that things are going pretty well.

- Oh, maybe the data show that one small thing is not quite right, but it shouldn’t turn out to be a big deal, after a few process tweaks and tucks. It’s really nothing to worry about.

- Suddenly, out of the clear blue, you’re facing potential disaster.

That little problem you weren’t worried about?

It blew up.

And now you’re sunk.

Or are you?

This is when resilience is a potentially business-saving asset, if you have it.

But for those who struggle with resilience, what causes it?

It’s fear.

And it’s human nature, in many ways.

No one wants to think about what might go wrong.

But putting your head in the sand is not a winning strategy in any business or profession. 

And it only increases stress, instead of burying it.

Manage your stress by reducing your stress, rather than by trying to ignore it.

If you’d like to grow or improve your resilience, start with the following five ideas.

They can soften the blow or save your business during unexpected and challenging times:

1. Stretch your thinking.

You’ll be more prepared to respond to any unexpected situation if you consider what might go wrong well before something happens.

Just by considering a wide range of possibilities, and mentally rehearsing what you and the people you work with would do to address them improves your ability to respond effectively in any circumstance that occurs.

One way to do this is scenario analysis. In a simple, structured format, you consider the best case, worst case, and most likely circumstances.

Then you stretch even further in each direction, and consider EVEN worse, and EVEN better things that could be ahead. Having done that, your “most likely” scenario is likely to be different and more accurate, than it previously was.

And however it works out, you are likely to have previewed and rehearsed, even in cursory fashion, what you might do and how you would approach previously unexpected situations.

Here’s a link to a post I wrote about it, Strategic planning: Mine your imagination with scenario planning.

2. Pay attention to critical details.

Track key indicators of possible change to improve your ability to predict what might happen, before it does.

Look at it this way: you’re improving the crystal ball you use to predict what will happen in the future.

To use examples in nature, animals, who are tuned in to very subtle signs in their environment, are far better than humans are at predicting and being ready for some natural disasters when they occur.

Dogs and cats, for example, can often tell when an earthquake is going to happen.

A recent New York Times article addressed birds’ ability to anticipate and prepare for dangerous storms. That article is here, Birds Have Natural Ability to Survive Storms.

Similarly, you can discover and track early warning signs of possible change in business.

To do so, start by identifying the highest risk aspects of your business.

Then brainstorm details or related trends that you could track to give you early warning about the very changes you worry about now…but could take action to prevent or minimize if you knew they were beginning to occur.

3. Figure out what processes and systems must work if only part of the company can work.

Change those core and key processes and systems now if they’re the ones your business must stand on to ride out an emergency for a while.

And if that emergency never occurs…and hopefully it won’t…you will benefit from faster, easier, more cost-effective processes and ways of getting work done.

That’s almost guaranteed to lower your costs and improve your profits.

4. Create an emergency plan and resources for your business.

This one is easy to wave off, but it could save your business, and it could save lives, too.

Encourage your employees and friends of the business, such as your customers, suppliers, and colleagues to do so, too.

Here are links to pages on the FEMA website that tell you how to create business preparedness plans and create emergency kits:

Business Preparedness

Build an Emergency Kit

5. Practice.

Find small ways to try resiliency out.

Be creative. Be positive, even if it’s not pleasant to think about.

Treat resiliency-building like a game, if you can. It’s a game with high stakes, if you have to exercise it.

But your business…and your life…could depend upon it.

And the odds are it will have beneficial effects far beyond what you might expect, even if that rainy day never comes.

What stops you and your company from sweeping away the main problems you face?

“Limited resources,” you may say.

Or, “There’s just not enough time to get ahead of things.”

Yet, if you add up all the money and time it takes to clean up after each individual mistake…well, the cost can be astounding.

Sometimes things just happen, and you do need miraculous saves.

And for those times, it’s good to have people on your team who can step up to be the hero or heroine. 

But it’s better not to need to use heroes or heroines regularly.

It’s not good for your customers, profits, or company.

And it’s not good for your blood pressure, either.

Put your greatest problem-solvers to work on long-term plays.

Try this approach:

1.  Make a list of the top three problems your company faces.

Start with the problems customers are most frustrated about.

These are the issues that might drive them to your competitors, if you don’t get the problems solved and, in the future, prevented.

2. Start with the problem that’s most painful to deal with now.

This is a problem that’s frustrating to customers and employees, both.

3. See the problem in its fullest extent.

Find a visual way to show or understand the problem, and to be able to communicate it well to everyone who is going to be involved in solving it.

A flowchart or simple drawing of the way the process works now can be useful for this step.

Show the pain points in the process in some way, such as by drawing red, radiating “pain points” or frustrated exclamation marks in the most troublesome parts of the process.

4. Tally up the estimated cost, lost time and other negative impacts of not having solved the problem yet.

Estimate the cost of fixing the problem each time you have to clean up something that has gone wrong, especially if the customer has received that work-gone-wrong.

Include, for example, the cost of rework, the cost of making things whole for an unhappy customer, the estimated impact of lost sales and referrals in the future if frustrated customers quit doing business with your company.

5. See the problem as a puzzle you’re trying to solve or a game you’re trying to win.

Many people crave a contest, no matter what it is.

And if crave a contest, they probably also crave a “win,” whatever a “win” is.

Look at the problem creatively and make a game out of problem-solving and problem-prevention.

For example, you can:

– Reduce the amount of time it takes to do the job

– Increase customer satisfaction

– Reduce cost while increasing customer satisfaction

– Increase flexibility and responsiveness as you reduce costs

6. Experiment.

Experiment with ways of trying to win the game you’ve created.

Make notes about what you tried, and why, and what you think will happen, as a result.

7. See if the experiment worked.

Check to see if the experiment worked.

If so, move on to Step 8.

If not try another experiment.

8. Educate and implement.

Record the information you need to pass on to others who will use this process regularly.

Set them up to win the game you’ve created through this improvement. Teach them what a “win” is, in this process and for the customers who buy this product or service from you.

Better yet, involve them in some way in creating the game they’ll now be trying to “win” on a regular basis.

9. Follow-up.

This is the key to success in many things.

Check back to see if the problem was, indeed, solved, and if good intentions and ideas were sustainably implemented.

If not, go back as far as you need to in the process to understand the real problem you’re facing, and to solve it.

10. Repeat the process to solve the next problem.

Remember the list of your top three problems in Step One? Take the next one in the list and turn it into a long-term play, and a game you can win now, and well into the future.

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“I’ve had it! I just want this pile of problems to go away!”

Does that sound like something you’ve said (or a cleaned up version of it)?

The person in this case was overwhelmed and dispirited by the problems of rapid growth, as was his whole team.

“I just want to get things done, and to solve problems so they stay away!” he said, dejectedly.

That sense of frustration, and momentary futility affects startups, mid-size companies, and corporations, as well.

For example, “No one has time to improve the way we get work done,” said a beleaguered colleague recently. She’s a long-time manager at a leading high-tech firm.

“We just have to keep pushing work through the processes we have, hoping they’ll get the work done well enough,” she said, in exasperation.

Surely there is SOMETHING you can do if you’re feeling this way, right?

There is.

Start simply, but start.

One way to begin is by answering one or more of the questions below.

Your answers can guide you to begin making improvements, the benefits of which add up in a big way.

1. What isn’t working?

Make a list.

Start with the things that are causing you and the people at your company the most pain.

Then, in front of that list, put a list of the problems that are causing your customers pain (you know what those things are, right? If not, find out).

2. How do you know you have a problem?

Gather the facts.

You may discover, in the process, that there are, indeed, problems, but they’re very different from what you expected they would be.

3. What does the problem cost you or your company now?

Once again, you may be very surprised. Sometimes problems that seem small are costing you a lot of money, or may in the future.

You won’t know until you check.

4. How does the process work now, before you improve it?

Draw a picture of the process, the way it works now.

Then, ask a sample of other people who use the process to draw a picture of how it works, as they see it.

The differences may be eye-opening. This may show you that another problem is also in play: poor communication.

5. Who do you do your work for?

Be clear about who the customers are for the work that you, specifically, do. In many cases, this is someone inside your company.

6. How do your customers want the work done?

These tell you what your customers’ requirements are. These often include details such as what your customers mean, specifically, when they say they want something that is “on time,” ”accurate,” or “cost-effective,” for example.

Customer requirements are your standard for success.

Know what they are and meet them.

7. If you don’t know what your customers want from you, how can you find out?

Then, do that.

8. If the process were working perfectly, what would it be like?

Imagine the process working easily and effectively, with little or no waste.

Describe and then write down a few of the most significant details in that perfectly-working process.

9. How is that perfect process different from the way the process works now?

Make a list of the differences between the way things could be, and the way they are.

10. Who are the customers your entire company does its work for?

These are the people who ultimately pay your salary when they decide to continue to do business with you, and to refer you to others.

11. What do your company’s customers want?

Make sure everyone in your company knows who your shared customers are, and what success means to them in terms of the products or services they buy from you.

12. How you know this is what they want?

Often, companies guess about what their customers want. Or they may assume they know better than their customers do about what’s important or valuable to them.

Few companies last long if they follow this, “We know what’s best for you” strategy with customer needs and requirements.

Don’t be one of them.

These 12 questions, and your answers to one or more of them can go a long way toward helping you start to solve the problems that typically cause you pain now.

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The challenges of business are rich and varied.

Even if you do everything else right, if you make the following two mistakes, you may unwittingly chase customers, business and profits away.

1. If your priorities don’t line up well with what’s important to your customers, you could be working very, very hard…on all the wrong things.

2. If you don’t have a way to translate those priorities into actions you can plan and manage easily, there’s no telling what results will emerge at the end of the day…or your work process.

Do this brief exercise:

- Think of your company’s top priorities.

- What are they?

- Why are these the most important things to you now?

- Do your priorities align with your customers’ priorities?

- What measures do you use to ensure that priorities turn into the right actions to produce what your customers want?

The consequences of being wrong - guessing, miscommunicating, or missing the boat – can create a chaotic, confusing, conflict-prone work environment.

And this increases the chances that problems will occur which must be corrected, wasting time, and money. 

It can also chase good customers away if they take their business to competitors who meet their needs better, and do so more easily.

What’s your most profitable path? It sounds simple enough:

- Take the order right, and easily.

- Fill or complete it correctly, and easily.

- Deliver it right, and easily.

- Follow up, as need be, to ensure that your customer is happy with the outcome.

Yet that seemingly simple plan can be deceptively hard to accomplish.

Below, here’s just one example of what we’re talking about…in a ”Don’t Do This” story.

My daughter, then a kindergartner, and I were getting breakfast at a fast food restaurant’s drive-thru window.

This was unusual, especially on a school day, but we’d built in a little extra time…though not as much time as the restaurant was taking.

As the wait went on and on, and we heard no update from the person who’d taken our order, I finally asked what the delay was.

“Oh, there’s no delay!” he said breezily. 

“Our company guidelines say I have 3 minutes to get your order to you!”

Clearly there was no point in having a discussion at that moment with that young man about company policy, customer expectations, and the wide disparity between them.

All he knew was that company policy dictated to him what I was supposed to want…and what the driver in the car behind me, and the driver in the car behind him were supposed to want, too.

We just quietly never returned to that company’s restaurants again. That meant a lot of missed business and profits for them, and opportunities for someone else.

And the other lesson from this story for businesses?

Silence from your customers does not necessarily mean that they’re satisfied with what you’re providing them.

It may mean they don’t think it’s worth their time and effort to give you feedback, for a variety of reasons.

Remember, then, these key questions:

- Who are your customers?

- What do they want?

- Of the things they want, what are their top priorities?

- How can you clearly communicate those needs to the people who will fill them?

- As you’re working to meet customers’ needs, how do you and your team know if you’re on track to deliver what the customer ordered…and what will bring them back, with their next order?

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The finish line.

When you read those words, what do you think? And what do you feel?

Do you imagine, or recall, experiences of:

- Soaring across a finish line?

- Struggling to cross it?

- Missing a finish line altogether, despite your best intentions and most dedicated preparation?

If you’re like most people, your experience with finish lines – and goal achievement – covers the full range from exuberance to missing the mark at times.

Goal-setting and goal achievement is, of course, on the minds of many people now, as the year begins.

If you’re setting goals for this year, try these steps:

1. Think back on your greatest achievements.

Recall what helped you see your way through to achieve them. Was it:

– Setting a clear vision of what you wanted to achieve?

– Seeking customer feedback, whoever the customers were for your work at the time, and letting that guide you forward?

– Following a thread of promising results, wherever they led?

– Concentrating on team or individual development so you’d be well-prepared for a future challenge?

– Did you use some other approach or strategy? If so, what was it?

2. Based on what you discover, what does it tell you about what may work best for goal-setting now?

– Do you need to create a clear vision of your goal, or a strong “felt sense” of achieving what you want now, and next?

–  Do you need to seek customer feedback to guide goal-setting?

–  Do you need to focus on what’s working well and use that to guide you to what’s best for you in the months ahead?

–  Or do you need to concentrate on developing skills or those of a team you lead so that you’re primed for a bigger goal in the future?

–  Is there yet another strategy that would guide you best as you prepare to achieve well in 2012?

Speaking for myself, when I do this exercise, I follow several approaches.

First, I create or refresh the vision that guides my work over several years.

Then I look at what worked well the prior year, and what I need to improve.

I use that information to set aggressive, yet grounded goals for the year ahead.

Next, I create a few annual performance measures to monitor and manage progress.

Finally, when it works best, I convert those annual measures into monthly and weekly measures. I use these to focus and produce steady progress.

These more frequent measures provide me almost instant feedback so I know if I’m on pace, and on-track to meet my goals, or if I must adjust my processes, resources, or perhaps the goals, themselves.

If you found this post valuable, share it with friends and colleagues who can use this information, too. You’ll also like the free weekly newsletter I publish. Sign up for the newsletter here.

Failure – well, partial failure – on a recent vacation activity reminded me what NOT to do when training someone.

In this case, I was a trainee.

Here was the situation:

A group of six of us had gathered on the beautiful Oregon coast, traveling from five different locations throughout the US to share the Christmas holiday.

Our daughter and her boyfriend, the most knowledgeable about Oregon, had looked for activities we might all like, in addition to enjoying each others’ company, cooking together, exploration of the beautiful area, and long beach walks.

Anne and John suggested crabbing which is, essentially, going out in a boat in waterproof clothes to catch your own seafood dinner.

Were we open to the idea?

We were.

The adventure, if nothing else, sounded like fun.

The day of crabbing arrived.

We donned our waterproof gear of boots, gloves, and warm, water-resistant clothes.

We paid for our boat, bait and other fees and bought our permits.

We listened quietly and earnestly as one of the owners of the crabbing company explained the process we would be following, what to look for, and which crabs were illegal to catch, and so had to be thrown back.

The lessons were simple, and we were sure we understood them. The woman training us seemed to be sure we were ready, too.

Her husband led us out to the boat we would use, and helped us get launched, providing lessons there on using this particular boat.

We headed out to the open water, a bit nervous but ready for the fun work ahead.

Soon, with patience, practice, purposeful experimentation, positive attitudes and a little friendly competition, we started to catch cioppino-bound crabs.

We filled every minute we had and headed back to port, buoyant, cold, tired, a bit wet despite our waterproof clothes, and feeling somewhat lucky and happy about our five-crab catch.

We also felt good about our teamwork and the process we’d “mastered” as much as we could in the few hours’  learning and experimentation we’d had for the task.

We sized up the afternoon’s work as a relative success.

Or so we thought.

Here’s the problem:

As we took off our gear, the owners of the crabbing company started getting crabby, and then accusatory with us about some unexpected holes in the nets.

We’d noticed one, too, as we worked, and wondered how it had happened, but tried to adapt by tying knots from a few of the seemingly chewed through ends of the cording.

We had followed their training to the letter, and reiterated that to these angry people, as they drove away future business in their process of defending their nets.

They blamed, accused, and turned what had been a fun adventure into, frankly, a baffling and maddening one.

I quickly tired of their accusatory tone, and replied, “We don’t know what you’re talking about. REALLY! We DO NOT UNDERSTAND what you’re talking about!”

Nothing they described as having happened to the nets on our watch, and none of the ill intent they attributed to us had been true.

Trying to make heads or tails out of this unexpected situation, I added, “Those things you’re describing make NO sense. Why would we do something to let the crabs OUT of the net? It was our goal to CATCH them.”

Part of me wondered if part of the way this duo increased their short-term profits (thinking nothing of the probable long-term effect) was to charge each boat an additional $40 for a net, after the fact.

And as I write this, I still wonder about that.

And in a negative sense, it was amazing to be reminded what a major impact a bad attitude from one or two people can have on a group, and how it can come close to ruining a otherwise-great experience…unless you actively counteract the effect.

I was also amazed that the owners of the company were not taking any responsibility for the training they provided.

As the experience wrapped up and we drove off with our crabs and distasteful memories of those crabby owners, we STILL didn’t understand what went wrong with the adventure of the nets.

We DO know a few things, however:

- We were glad to have shared the good part of the adventure.

- We were glad we’d caught enough crab for dinner, since we’d invested time, effort and money in the process.

- We would go crabbing again…just not through that company.

Here, then, are a few recommendations, if you train other people, in anything, for any reason:

1. Mistake-proof the process as much as you can. Teach the mistake-proofed process.

2. Help the learners understand the big picture, goals and process they will be using.

3. Provide the significant details that can ensure success and cause failure, if you know the things that may happen with novices at the helm.

4. Provide visual aids that learners can easily refer to as they work, if need be.

5. If you see the learners doing something wrong, correct them during the process.

Don’t wait until after the fact to inform them they did something wrong, and worst of all, to do it in an accusatory manner. That’s essentially lying in wait, hoping they’ll fail so you can be “right.”

However, if they fail at the process, and you see it happen…whether you trained them on those details or not…but do nothing to correct it, the fault is yours. You have the power to prevent a problem that they, who are less experienced, may not even be able to see yet.

6. Assume good intentions on the part of the people you’re training.

It makes no logical sense that someone would want to spend their time, energy, and money, if that is also involved, doing things wrong.

7. Take responsibility for your training design, detail, and effectiveness.

8. If you think you’re training effectively, and you want to make sure you are, you’ll ask learners for their feedback, as well as objectively assessing their successful application of your training attempts.

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“I’m afraid of what I don’t know,” the CEO of the rapidly growing company said to me.

“And I’m afraid of what I can’t see.”

He feared dire circumstances could wipe out his thriving company.

This CEO was worried enough that he longed for an early warning system…if there were a way to create one.

So I did. It was like solving a high-risk puzzle, or providing an action-oriented dashboard that would guide them through improvements, gradually.

And then we made sure the decision-making and prioritization framework would serve his company.

Do you, too, long for a sense of command in otherwise challenging and unpredictable circumstances?

Do you ever wish for an early warning system such as this CEO had?

If so, here are the basic steps we used to create this busy company’s early warning system:

– Start with your fears

We called this the “edge of cliff” analysis, and started with the CEO’s greatest fears.

He had lived with heavy but ambiguous worry for some time.

He hadn’t yet articulated his fears clearly, so that he could turn them into something positive and actionable.

– Turn them into scenarios

We considered his worst-case scenarios and the probable consequences of each for his clients and company.

We also considered best-case scenarios (they are so much more fun to think about…and we needed those for a bit of relief).

And then we considered what would happen if the best were even better, and the worst were even worse than we imagined.

This stretched our sense of what the early warning system needed to accommodate, and flag for preventative, or adaptive action.

–  Make your early warning system goal clear

Identify what you want your early warning system to do for you.

Then consider who will use the information, and what they will do with it.

Check in with the future users of the information to see what they need to make the information readily usable, and actionable.

– Gather external information

I had to find a proxy for customer satisfaction and frustrations, in lieu of talking directly to customers.

I looked to see what promises were made or implied to customers through the company’s marketing and advertising materials.

This told me what processes inside the company had to work flawlessly, under all different circumstances, no matter what was happening outside the company.

– Synthesize

Working with the leadership team, I verified and clarified which processes had to be top-notch in order for them to continue to thrive.

We mapped this to the most likely scenarios they might face, and identified which processes put them at highest risk, if they were not strengthened and improved.

– Organize and communicate

We organized and simplified the work, making it easy to understand and use.

We had no interest in creating a system that just looked good on paper. We wanted one that would be successful in real life and real business.

We then trained people, helping them see what valuable part they played in making the early warning system work successfully.

The early warning system turned out to be a combination of crystal ball, fire drill, and strategic change management system all rolled into one.

If you need an early warning system, and would like guidance and support as you do so, let me know. 

If enough people are interested, I’ll create a class to teach and guide you through the process.

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As year-end looms and you work to meet the year’s final goals, here are two of many possible scenarios:

You’re:

- Good for the finish line.

You have the right time, money, energy, attention, skills and other resources you need to get the job done.

- Hoping miracles are real…because you need one now.

In this case, resources may be limited, or poorly aligned with your goals.

Priorities may be unclear, or absent.

Skills, knowledge and experience available to get the job done may be less than what you now know are necessary to be successful in the way the year has worked out.

If you’re in that hoping-for-a-miracle situation, well, remember that you’re not alone.

Many people and teams are discovering the same thing at this point in the year, like it or not.

Sometimes circumstances and priorities in life get all tangled up. And when a deadline is looming – like year-end – the situation only seems worse.

You can improve next year’s plans.

You can improve next year’s implementation.

For now, focus on doing the best you can in the situation you have.

What, then, can you do to untangle the knot and get as much done as possible, as well as possible, before the end of the year is here?

Here are a few ways to tighten your focus and increase your chances of success:

1. Remember – or get clear about – what your goal is.

2. Recall who you’re doing your work for, and what they consider success to be.

3. Get out your map (or, more likely, project plan) leading you to to the finish line.

4. See if it still makes sense, and if not, adjust it so it will work in present circumstances.

5. Figure out where you are on that map or project plan.

6. See and take the next most natural, most obvious step.

7. Repeat as needed.

And all of that is easy to say…but sometimes hard to do.

Wires can just get crossed, and the primary target lost in the confusion, disarray or shuffle.

When that happens find ways to go back to square one to review and recharge, renewing your strong sense of your target, purpose and path there.

Let extraneous things fall away.

Focus your attention, resources and energy on what’s most important.

Here are just a few simple things that may help you regain perspective:

- Take a drive.

Sometimes when you see your office, home or city in the rear view mirror, perspective “magically” returns. Distance and movement away from present circumstances can bring much-needed perspective.

- Take a walk.

The same perspective-gaining principle applies here, except that you’re getting the big picture from nature, and immersion in it, even briefly.

- Review your vision.

If you have a vision of your desired outcome – in whatever form you recorded and saved it – review that.

Pre-experience it, and imagine achieving it, in great detail.

- Listen to satisfied customers.

Remind yourself why you do the work you do.

Review reminders of the great work you’ve done for customers in the past, and are doing in the present.

Listen to or read customer testimonials and review customer feedback.

In easy but effective ways, remind yourself once again why you do the work you do, for the people you serve through it.

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